Category: Regional

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Clico and the related crisis: Confusion continues

Introduction
It has been an incredibly hot week in Guyana. In fact so hot that the President who was directly or indirectly involved with every single financial decision made in the public sector for the past sixteen years decided it was just too hot and took off for a change of climate engagement. He asked his Finance Minister Dr Ashni Singh who has carried statutory responsibility for the operation of the Insurance Act and therefore supervision of Clico for more than two years as well as of the National Insurance Scheme, the biggest single potential loser in the Clico debacle, to make a statement to the National Assembly.

Clearly stung by the revelations of what may prove to be a major loss to the country there has been heightened activity by the government. Even as lower-level letter writers were at work, the government called into their corner big guns like Messrs Yesu Persaud and Clifford Reis for a panel discussion with the Minister of Finance. We heard again from the Bank of Guyana not on whether it has continued to track and assess “every bit of information being provided on the issue as it develops” but to “dispel the misrepresentations” by persons whom the Bank did not name. We heard as well from Ms Maria Van Beek, the Commissioner of Insurance/Judicial Manager of Clico, witnessed a press conference by the directors and management of Hand-in-Hand Trust, TV interviews with economist Ramon Gaskin and TUC President Gillian Burton and disturbing but not surprising fears expressed by insurance broker Mr Bishwa Panday and leaders of the teachers’ union. By the end of the week it was clear that there was little confidence in everything said by the government and the regulator in relation to Clico. Having done next to little so far, the Minister of Finance rather than the Judicial Manager is impressively rushing papers to The Bahamas to prove our debt. We all hope it is not too late.

Red herring
The Bank of Guyana and the big guns were called out mainly to speak about the strength of the banking system, as if that was the issue. There are currently many questions about the banking system but not about its strength. Yes, different persons in varying degrees and sometimes with varying justification question many things, such as the role of the non-bank cambios in the underground economy, the absence of any meaningful interest or effective efforts to stamp out money laundering, the interest rate policies and the conservative approach inherent in banking, and the increasingly troubling failure of the Bank of Guyana and the government to bring the New Building Society under the Financial Institutions Act. But the strength of the banking system has not been an issue to academics or depositors who place increasing sums with the sector, which must surely be a big test. Raising it was a pure red herring.

Experience has taught that the public is more sensible than it is given credit for. It knows that failures do not arise only in weak systems, with Globe Trust being a good case in point. It knows how toxic assets can contaminate good ones akin to Gresham’s law and money. It is concerned that the NBS has just invested some $1.5 B in the Berbice Bridge, hardly on the grounds of an investment but more as a bail-out using poor people’s money. It would still be sceptical about the optimism of the Board of HIHT to withstand a near billion dollar loss in Stanford and wonder whether the Bank of Guyana was too soft in allowing such a concentration of assets. None of these issues was raised by the moderator of the panel or by the Bank of Guyana. It is wrong to believe that because the public does not have access and opportunities it is voiceless or does not understand.

Revelation
Much of what was said by our men of learning had little impact. What really had the country and the Minister of Finance going was a statement by the Prime Minister of The Bahamas that “there appears to be no record available at this time” of Clico (Guyana)’s investment in Clico (Bahamas). That is contrary to everything accepted by all including the company’s auditors Deloitte and Touche and the Commissioner of Insurance. In fact the Minister of Finance confidently told the press that there was “a plethora of correspondence, including wire transfers of substantial amounts, dating as far back as 2004” supporting the investment.

I have looked at the 2006 and 2007 financial statements of Clico (Bahamas) and these seem to support the qualified statement by the PM. In the books of the Bahamian company, note 12 (2007) and note 10 (2006) show the following (in Bahamian dollars which is equivalent to US dollars):

20090308_table1

And note 22 (2007) shows that the figure of $212,723 at December 31, 2007 is made up of amounts owing to Barbados, Suriname and CL Financial Limited which is the parent company. Nothing is shown as owing to Guyana. Over the three years 2005-2007 the only year shown with a balance with Guyana is 2006 where the amount was stated at $275,317.

Transactions with Guyana over the same years are shown as follows:

20090308_table2

The Guyana books showed investments at 31 December 2007 in Clico Bahamas of $5.95B and accrued investment income of $329M. Can it be that the balance owed by the Bahamas company to the Guyana company is shown somewhere else in the accounts? That is possible, but given that the accounts are both audited and in both cases by the same auditing firm − but by different offices − it is hard to understand why the Minister chose the route of the plethora of documentation rather than having the Judicial Manager call in the auditors for an explanation, to be followed by the paperwork. After all, the auditors would respond quickly, bringing their audit working papers files, anxious to avoid the implications of what seems on the face of the financial statements to be a major discrepancy which routine audit procedures should have revealed. Yes the paperwork is necessary, but surely the persons who have given their stamp of approval on the accounts would be a good place to start.

Different strokes…
One of the very striking features of the still far-from-over saga is how the two countries have treated the matter at the regulatory and more so at the political level. The Prime Minister of The Bahamas made an early and clear statement to their Parliament on the whole issue including offering advice to affected persons. Our President has chosen to make several statements including one before he departed these shores repeating his assurances about meeting all valid claims against Clico. From reports of a meeting Mr Panday had with Ms Van Beek and the information conveyed to the teachers, it does not appear that Clico is relying on those assurances.

There is also some discrepancy about the timing of Mr Jagdeo’s contacts with his counterpart in The Bahamas with the latter saying that it was after the announcement of the move to liquidate the Bahamas company that President Jagdeo called him. But what is more significant is Mr Jagdeo’s revelation that he had proposed as (part) settlement of the debt by Clico (Bahamas) to Clico (Guyana) to take over the Florida real estate in which the Bahamian funds were invested through one of its subsidiaries. It is not clear whether his intention is that our politically-controlled Privatisation Unit would then sell the asset, but surely our President, who is never hesitant to pronounce on matters legal, ought to have realised that that was not possible as a potentially fraudulent preference. The suggestion by a columnist in another newspaper that our President say nothing further in this matter has a lot of merit and was reflected in the call by the Finance Minister to “ensure that the court appointed process is allowed time to exhaust all avenues to protect the assets of CLICO Guyana.” Regrettably there is too much at stake for the public to wait on the necessarily cautious and deliberate court process.

Huge costs
Liquidation costs are enormous and are a first call on the proceeds of any sale of company assets. Many of the assets of the Bahamas company are pledged to secure debts other than deposits, and we therefore need to prepare ourselves for a substantial loss by Clico (Guyana) of its investment in the Bahamian company, assuming that there is such an investment. This then raises the question about Mr Jagdeo’s assurances which the Commissioner of Insurance through GINA initially reaffirmed, ie that all polices held in CLICO (Guyana) will be protected. This of course, whatever form it takes, will have to come from the taxpayers.

The Commissioner as Judicial Manager has to act independently and professionally. She has been instructed by the court to return promptly to them with a plan and no court will accept such vague assurances as those given by President Jagdeo and later repeated by her. She should not be unmindful that medical service providers have refused to extend further credit to the company while holders of short-term policies are already looking elsewhere for their coverage. In repeating the President’s assurance about guarantee, Ms Van Beek will recognise that this cannot be open-ended. If we care about our constitution and the Fiscal Management and Accountability Act, any such guarantee has to be given by Parliament.

In this regard, it seems a fair assessment that the President has not been sufficiently informed of the liabilities which his assurances that “all claims” will be met are interpreted to guarantee. The motion submitted by the PNCR calls on the government to take all necessary steps “to guarantee the savings, pensions and investments of all CLICO (Guyana) investors including the National Insurance Scheme (NIS), depositors, policyholders and contributors.” That would cost the government billions of dollars even if Clico’s actual and contingent assets are taken over. In Trinidad and Tobago Mr Lawrence Duprey had to give up huge chunks of assets in exchange for the government’s assumption of liabilities. Assuming we take over the liabilities, what do we get in return and how? It seems that Clico (Guyana)’s main assets – other than the Bahamas investment, are the loan to Caribbean Resources Limited ($1B), shares in the Berbice Bridge Company with a book value of less than $80M and any remaining bonds in the Berbice Bridge Company.

Conclusion
The President in his typical style has threatened prosecution against the directors and management of Clico if fraud were found. The President may not be aware, as disclosed by Business Page of February 8, that there is only one Guyanese director who is also the CEO who less than ten weeks ago he lavishly praised and made a director of his revamped GuySuCo Board. We are now paying the price for our failure to take governance seriously, not only in what I have referred to as public interest companies but in all public and state-owned companies.

Next week I will continue looking at the implications of this debacle but for now, please if we are thinking of selling off any of the policies to other companies, remember that there will have to be actuarial valuations done. From what I have seen we have not even begun to deal with this problem.

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Stanford 20/20 smoke and mirrors and an update on Clico

Introduction
The columns of Business Page have reported on far more financial scandals than it would have liked. Although it was soon overtaken as the biggest corporate scandal ever, Enron was covered in a series in February 2002 and remembered in a piece one year later to mark its anniversary. Parmalat too with a hole of billions on its balance sheet and Nick Leeson who brought down the 233-year-old Barings Bank, the Queen’s bank, were accorded their fair share of space. More recently it was Bernard Madoff of the US and B. Ramalinga Raju of Satyam Computer Ltd of India to add to the list of corporate fraudsters. Each fraud has had its own consequences, with Enron taking down with it Arthur Andersen, one of the world’s most respected accounting firms, as well as the investments of its employees’ pension scheme.

For the most part however the direct consequences have been felt by employees, creditors and shareholders, including pension schemes. And they have all had some common ingredients − a tale of lies, deception, smoke and mirrors, sleeping accountants and poor governance and weak regulators, all fed by frenzied greed in the name of capitalism. Each, however, took place in larger economies that could absorb a moderate level of stress and setbacks.

‘Sticky Wicket’
On the other hand, the fall from grace of cricket icon Sir Allen Stanford is in a different ballpark altogether. After the government, the Stanford group is/was the largest employer in its home base Antigua. It has its own cricket ground – named appropriately Sticky Wicket − with swimming pool, lighting and facilities that rival the government-owned stadium and the record-making Antigua Recreation Ground. It operates the Bank of Antigua which has a significant share of the retail banking in that country. It owns some of the choicest pieces of real estate on the island. It was, prior to its fall, planning to develop an area called Shell Beach and nearby Maiden Island, towards the end of the airport runway, with a marina, shopping and entertainment complex.

Stanford’s towering image, cosy relationship, influence and hold over Antigua simply cannot be under-estimated. The island’s Prime Minister, Baldwin Spencer, never a friend of Stanford, admitted that the charges brought by the SEC against Mr Stanford and two of his associates could have “catastrophic” consequences. He urged the public not to panic. It was like telling persons in a rainstorm not to take protective action – and such advice was quietly ignored by depositors who queued up to withdraw their money from the Stanford-owned Bank of Antigua. Seizing the political opportunity to crush Lester Bird, he has called general elections which he is certain to win.

Threat
There is also a wider, regional threat to the Eastern Caribbean Dollar – one of the most stable currencies in the world and which is managed by the Eastern Caribbean Central Bank, the monetary authority for eight OECS island economies including Antigua. The bank in a statement reportedly handed to people queuing to get their money said its “liquidity position is sound.” It was careful to note however that that the bank’s ability to meet customer requirements applied “under normal circumstances” and that if individuals persisted in rushing to the bank in a panic, they would precipitate a collapse. The consequences of massive withdrawals and conversion into and flight of foreign currency is going to test the stability of the EC dollar over the coming weeks.

But the image Mr Stanford cultivated was even bigger than the assets or his plans. For example, the helicopter in which he landed at Lord’s to announce his “20/20 for 20 million” deal with the England and Wales Cricket Board was not, as the gold-plated Stanford name and logo emblem on its body indicated, corporate property but one rented for the day. Nor was the $20 million jackpot in the treasure chest shown to the world at the launch real money – it was at most about US$100,000 standing atop wads and wads of paper. It was one big con. The press, fascinated by the Texan billionaire, was too dazzled by the dollars to see the game at work and to ask questions.

Dazzled by wealth and….
Stanford was flamboyant, ambitious and most importantly for the gullible, including most of the region, fabulously rich. But contrary to his tale of a family heritage and inheritance associated with Stanford University, Stanford’s real wealth had its source in the early 1980s when he and his father James Stanford bought distressed properties in Texas during the oil industry bust and the S&L crisis, rehabilitated them and sold them at huge profits when the market got better.

But Texas was too big for the man who had visions of grandeur and royalty. He wanted to be king and chose first Montserrat to base his operations before moving to Antigua where he became a real force during the rule of the Bird family, the father-and-son dynasty that held power for more than 40 years. It was during that period that Stanford helped the Birds turn Antigua into a tax haven and soon made him into a billionaire. With his personal wealth estimated at more than US$2 billion, he was bigger than the economy of Antigua and so Stanford could get whatever Stanford wanted. He demanded and received the trappings of royalty that Texas could not give him – a knighthood without the need to bow in front of the Queen. In fact that knighthood was granted to him by the Birds. He ran his financial empire from the island’s airport office park which was the most iconic landmark to greet any visitor to the island. While his empire extended to Latin America his colossal status derived from his tryst with West Indian cricket of which he was seen as the saviour following years of the most pathetic management by a succession of the most pathetic Board of Directors ever to have ruled the game anywhere in the world. With the glitter of millions, he redefined West Indian cricket into a game of fast paced entertainment, money and image, particularly appealing to the lucrative television market.

Criminal charges likely
The details of Stanford’s fall are still unfolding but what seems to have emerged so far is that the company was selling investors high-yielding certificates of deposit on the basis they were safe and liquid investments. According to the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) Stanford’s investment portfolio was an opaque “black box,” including holdings in illiquid real estate and private equity. Following investigations that had been going on since last summer, the SEC has filed charges against three entities, Antigua-based Stanford International Bank, and its affiliated Houston-based investment advisers, Stanford Group Company and Stanford Capital Management.

Unlike Kenneth Lay or Madoff or Raju, Stanford has not been charged with any criminal offence – at least not yet. The action brought against Stanford is a civil action although the word fraud has been used by the SEC involving somewhere between $8 and $9.2 billion. It has been reported that the FBI is carrying out its own investigations but that it does not want to lay charges until it has been able to find sufficient evidence to secure a conviction. Should it move too early it will have set in train a schedule that would force criminal investigators to charge, indict and construct a trial within a tight time-frame. Whether it is criminal or civil fraud is the kind of fine distinction that does not interest depositors and investors who have been rushing to all locations where Stanford operates demanding the return of their money.

Impact
It has been reported that some of our cricketers have invested money in Stanford while the Ministry of Finance has confirmed that one major institutional investor, which Business Page suspects is either a commercial bank or an insurance company, has placed funds with the Stanford group. The Ministry has told the press that it is “monitoring the situation” although quite what this means in the light of its handling of the Clico issue is hardly reassuring. We must not forget that there are thousands of Guyanese living in Antigua and it is a fair guess that many of them would have had their savings in Stanford’s bank. If the government is truly monitoring the situation it should immediately send a high-level representative to Antigua to represent the interest of those persons.

At some time we will have to confront the threats to small countries by rich investors and oligarchs who can bribe, cajole and threaten to get what they want. The view that these people are here to save us must by now be surely mistaken. So too is the view that we are insulated from the world economic crisis. Our own politicians need to stop feeding us with their own form of garbage.

Clico update
Chairman of the National Insurance Scheme has told the press, more than a month after the news of the failure of Clico Investment Bank in Trinidad and Tobago that he is uncertain about the extent of the exposure of the NIS to the local Clico company. That is amazing and dangerous when in the same breath he estimates that the exposure can be as much as $6 billion.

Business Page has for two weeks been trying to obtain confirmation from various members of the NIS Investment Committee of the value of the exposure and has written to the acting General Manager of the Scheme seeking confirmation. By arrangement the Commissioner of Insurance has also been written to with a list of several questions the answers to which would form the basis of next week’s Business Page. If Dr Luncheon is right and the exposure is around $6 billion, then potentially we could have some really serious problems since the Scheme’s viability will depend on the continued success of Clico Guyana. The consequences of a failure are simply too frightening to contemplate.

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Adjustment time in Trinidad and Tobago

Introduction
It has been a challenging week for Trinidad and Tobago where crime seems to dominate the headlines in the dailies. In fact, crime had to share space with news on the economy and more dramatically with natural events in which persistent and unusual rainfall caused severe flooding in several regions of the country, including its capital, leading to the death of two persons. The central bank announced that food price inflation in October increased on a year-on-year basis to 33.4 per cent, slightly below the 34.6 per cent recorded in September. Core inflation, which factors out the cost of food, increased for the first time in three months to 7.4 per cent from 6.2 per cent as consumers paid more for water, electricity, gasoline and transportation. That was not all. The IMF reported on its visit to the country and then Prime Minister Patrick Manning addressed the nation on how the government proposed responding to the revenue shortfall. Let us look at the address first.

Oil and gas run out of steam
The thrust of his address when shorn of politics and rhetoric was that in the face of an international financial crisis that shows no sign of abating, the Government of Trinidad and Tobago has moved to cut discretionary expenditure to match the fall in revenues from key sectors. These of course, form the backbone of the economy of the twin-island economy. Revenue losses are being felt in the prices of the country’s major exports − oil and petroleum products, ammonia, methanol, urea and steel. Because of the significance of those sectors to the economy, the budget makes certain assumptions about the international price − and therefore the revenue the country will receive – of those products.

In the budget presented at the end of September, the Minister of Finance used a price for oil and gas of $70 per barrel and $4/mmbtu (Million British Thermal Units) respectively based on international estimates at the time. If anyone had a clue of the falls that were likely to take place following the budget, they certainly did not mention it. Yet, by the end of October, crude oil fell significantly to US$67.81 per barrel at the end of October, losing more than 50 per cent of its value since peaking in July 2008 at US$148 per barrel. Natural gas at the US benchmark trading hub was priced at US$6.58/mm but at the end of October 2008, it was down 11 per cent since the beginning of the month and trending downwards. Between September and October this year, the price of ammonia fell from US$887.60 to $772.90 per tonne (13%); urea from US$798.75 to $573.40 per tonne (28%) and methanol, also softening, from US$411.00 per tonne to $399.00 (3%). Because the markets for these products are different, prices do not move in tandem.

Compounding a bad situation that may yet get worse, are a number of temporary plant closures and reduced output at the Point Lisas Industrial Estate, the 860 hectares, world-class facility that is the heart of the country’s petrochemical sector.

Taken together, revenue is projected to fall short by six billion dollars or US$1B for the financial year. Describing the situation as “very serious” and warranting immediate action, Prime Minister Manning in a national address earlier this week reported that his government had done a reassessment of its planned expenditure and cabinet had considered recommendations from the Minister of Finance. Out of those, according to the Prime Minister, the government was reordering its developmental priorities and deferring some projects considered essential to the realisation of developed country status. Trinidad and Tobago has targeted the year 2020 for the achievement of that status and has in place a multi-sectoral group of twenty-eight subcommittees working with a National Development Strategy Plan.

All ministries, departments and statutory authorities have been targeted for reduction of budgetary allocations including discretionary expenditure like promotion, publicity and printing; materials and supplies. Not without significance is the decision to put on hold any further consideration to buy a jet for the country’s increasingly mobile Prime Minister. But the real brunt of cutbacks are in relation to the country’s development programmes with “downward adjustments” for new projects other than those of an urgent or critical nature; for those projects for which there were no firm contractual obligations; for ongoing projects for which the pace of implementation could be reduced without legal penalties; and for ongoing projects for which some components could be deferred.

CARICOM
Trinidad and Tobago has the largest economy in CARICOM. Since 2001, the economy has grown at Asian rates of 8.3 per cent per annum, tripling in size from 55 billion dollars in 2001 to 160 billion dollars in 2008. Comparatively in CARICOM, the T&T economy is a giant among ordinary mortals. The Prime Minister recognised in his statement, however, the interdependence of the CARICOM economies which represent T&T’s second largest market for its goods and services. Amid all the cuts and belt-tightening Manning emphasized the need for the continuing availability of the CARICOM Petroleum Fund for the assistance of its partners.

Reaction to the address has been varied and while the announcements have largely been welcomed by the various private sector organizations the political opposition has been less generous calling on Manning to begin by cutting governmental excesses. But it seems that most Trinidadians are prepared to wait on the details of the cuts following a review by ministers of their respective budgets and cuts in specific programmes and projects decided by the cabinet to ensure that expenditure is kept in line with revenue.

The IMF
At the end of a mission to discuss economic and financial developments, policies, and prospects, as part of its routine annual consultation with Trinidad and Tobago, the IMF issued what may be considered a cautiously optimistic assessment of the economy with its usual caveats and warnings. The team acknowledged the impressive growth of the economy and achievements in key macro indicators including the low unemployment rate, the halving of the public debt and moving from a net debtor country to a net external creditor, and having one of the strongest credit ratings in the region.

The report notes, however, that while its large international reserves and low debt ratios make Trinidad a better place than many countries to weather the international financial crisis, it is not immune from contagion. The report notes that the country’s banking sector has entered the period of global turmoil from a position of strength, being well capitalized, liquid, and profitable, and funded mainly through domestic deposits and equity, as opposed to external borrowing. Spillovers and disruptions are not likely to be significant even with the risk of liquidity shocks transmitted through foreign parent banks. Ironically RBTT one of the country’s largest banks has only just been taken over by Royal Bank of Canada although there is no suggestion or indication that RBC is anything but strong.

Threats
The problem will come if the global slowdown becomes more acute. If that is accompanied by a more dramatic decline in energy and asset prices things could change with risks arising from exposures of large and complex financial conglomerates operating across the region. No one wants to bet on the unlikelihood of that happening but the odds must still be in the country’s favour.

If the external environment continues to deteriorate and recession bites deeply in the advanced economies there will certainly be spillovers to the tourism-dependent economies of the region, and sharply lower prices for energy products. The IMF sees the effect in sharp declines in growth of the economy to 3½ per cent in 2008 and 2 per cent in 2009. While this will dampen demand and ease price pressures, it will also see the external current account surplus declining by 13 percentage points to about 15 per cent of GDP and transform the central government balance into a deficit of about 2 per cent of GDP under current budget plans.

The mission noted the urgency to the enactment of improved financial sector legislation and the strengthening of supervisory practices and welcomed the recent passage of a new Financial Institutions Act (FIA). Trinidad and Jamaica have perhaps the most sophisticated but complex financial sectors in the region and the mission called for changes in conglomerates’ holding structures, with a clear separation of financial and non-financial activities; risk-management practices; and enforcement of prudential standards and for coordination with regional and international supervisors.

Conclusion
The Manning government is by nature very populist in its ways and the developments will no doubt come at an inopportune time for the PNM government that was busy trying to cement some form of union with the OECS countries. Manning did not indicate whether that initiative is still on the front burner, but there must now be serious doubts about the gestation of that wish.

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A look at the Trinidad and Tobago Budget 2008-09

Introduction
It was like a baptism of heat for new Minister of Finance Karen Nunez-Tesheira of the twin island state of Trinidad and Tobago as she presented the first budget of the re-elected Patrick Manning government and more personally, her first since her surprise appointment as the country’s first female Minister of Finance.

Surprising because despite being the holder of an Executive Masters of Business Administration from the Arthur Lok Jack School of Business of the University of the West Indies, Nunez-Tesheira is better known as an attorney at law who has spent more than twenty years at the Hugh Wooding Law School as Senior Tutor and writer of two recommended books on the syllabus of the school.

Indeed as she announced measures inherited from or incomplete from earlier years she was teased with perhaps the most damaging accusation against an academic – plagiarism. Uncomfortably for the Minister, one opposition front bencher closely followed her speech, shouting out the page and paragraph number if she repeated something which was in the previous speech.

For Budget 2008-09 it was all about billions of TT dollars which at today’s rate of exchange is approximately US$1 = TT $6.24. The budget was presented against rapid developments in the financial sector in the US − the bail-out of Bear Stearns a few months ago, more recently of mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and insurance titan American International Group and public disquiet at a call by the Bush administration for US$700 billion to buy what is now being referred to as toxic mortgage loans. The Minister had earlier said in a statement issued by her ministry that it was difficult to anticipate exactly how the ongoing turbulence in financial markets would impact T&T but that the country’s central bank was examining the developments on the economy of T&T.

In that statement the Minister indicated that the Governor of the central bank had informed her that the bank has no holdings of paper issued by any of these institutions and that the very small proportion of the bank’s foreign assets managed by US institutions are “ring-fenced” and were not on the balance sheets of these institutions.

The PNM government has however announced a number of measures to amend various acts, including the Financial Institutions Act and the Securities Act to strengthen the regulatory framework.

Budget highlights
Total revenue is estimated at $49.465B of which $20B (40%) is expected to come from the energy sector with the remaining coming from other taxes on income and Value-Added Tax.

Total expenditure net of capital repayments and Sinking Funds is projected at $49.445B giving a surplus of $19.5M. As a percentage of total expenditure, education receives some 14.4%, infrastructure 13.3%, health 8.78%, security 9.6%, agriculture 4.5% and housing 3.3%.

External reserves have increased to US$8.5B or the equivalent of eleven months of import cover while the Heritage and Stabilisation Fund has some US$2.4B representing 10.2 % of GDP and higher than the level of the country’s external debt which stands at 6% of GDP.

The growth in the economy was 3.5 % which − despite the substantial increases in energy prices – saw the non-energy sector growing faster than the energy sector.

Inflation has taken a hit with commodity food prices and headline inflation rate having risen to 11.9% over the twelve months to August 2008 which makes the sustainable inflation rate of 6 % a formidable challenge.

Increases for senior citizens, those on public assistance and disability and retired public servants.

Other positive features by the Minister include free access to textbooks and other school material, free meals and transportation for students, 2% mortgage interest rate for low income earners, no VAT on all basic food items, one of the lowest rates of personal income tax “anywhere in the world” (25% after an allowance of US$10,000 per annum).

Developed country status
As would be expected, the Minister was upbeat about the medium-term prospects for the country that aims to achieve developed nation status by 2020. The Minister was not bashful in announcing that her government was putting in place special arrangements to bring benefits to the country beyond the tax take and added that they propose to increase the government’s ownership of assets in the natural gas market.

One of the measures attracting the most comment is the announcement of an increase in tax on premium unleaded gasoline which the Minister controversially predicts “will affect the high end of the market.” This measure will require those affected to pay $4 a litre for premium unleaded gasoline — an increase of $1 or 33 per cent, a move which some see not as a revenue matter but one to ease the traffic congestion that sees jams in the morning, at noon and nights and choking entry and exit points not only in Port of Spain but in the other major urban areas such as San Fernando and Chaguanas.

The government’s long-term plan is the reintroduction of a rail system involving two express train lines covering 105 kilometres while more immediately the government-owned Public Transport Service Corporation is expanding and modernizing its fleet of vehicles to 400 while the Coastal Water Taxi Service project will, beginning in phases from December 2008, connect by boat the principal cities cutting travel time from 2 hours to 45 minutes in the Port of Spain-San Fernando link.

Guyanese and Colombians
Aided by increased revenues from the export of oil, LNG and petrochemicals, unemployment has fallen to a historic low of less than 5 % and the construction industry is now using increasing numbers of nationals from non-Caricom countries including Colombia and as far away as Nigeria. Guyanese would therefore feel justifiably aggrieved that so many of our hugely productive nationals are turned away by immigration officials when they try to enter the country. I understand that part of the reason for the difference is that many of the Guyanese try to do it on their own while others are brought in mainly by international contractors.

Apart from its willingness to remain involved in the economy the government also plays a leading role in the housing sector though some critics see the not too thinly disguised hand of politics involved. Many of the schemes are located in marginal seats (T&T has the constituency system), and the distribution pattern can shift the electoral balance significantly in favour of the ruling party even as the opposition continues to founder for any strategic line of challenge on the Government’s Achilles Heel such the markedly arrogant and autocratic style of the Prime Minister, corruption, crime, weak governance and failure to deal with inflation.

Crime and inflation
In fact with Trinidad and Tobago challenging its sister countries for the title of crime capital of the Caribbean, it remains a mystery why more attention was not spent on measures to address the out of control crime situation in the country. Deputy leader of the main opposition party Kamla Persad-Bissessar’s comment that “the programmes the government has put in place will continue to overheat the economy” was shared by some of the TV commentators in the hours after the presentation of the budget. Not many people would agree with her that the country was heading for a meltdown.

While the Minister announced that the government was trying to deal with increased food prices by treating agriculture as a priority sector and therefore dealing with high food prices from the supply side, Persad-Bissessar lamented that the low allocation to agriculture hardly reflected this priority status.

As a part-time visitor to the country, my observation is that T&T’s economic challenge is how to tame the inflation tiger with the depreciation of the TT dollar in line with the US dollar against non-US dollar currencies adding cost pressures to inflation fueled by sharply escalating food prices. Bank governor Ewart Williams has advised that the only way to reverse food price inflation on a sustainable basis is by increasing domestic agricultural supply and containing demand. There is an obvious contradiction between this objective and the government’s policy of buying political and public support by increasing the amount of money pumped annually into the economy.

Agriculture
Last year, as Finance Minister, Partick Manning announced an agricultural policy following a two-day national food consultation that fourteen agriculture initiatives, involving the conversion of sugar lands to food crops, were earmarked to be implemented at a total cost of $1.2 billion.

Minister in the Finance Ministry Chartered Accountant Mariano Brown has told the public that only four of these have come to fruition, attributing the blame to the private sector for not taking up the challenge. That those have not succeeded in making a dent in prices obviously raises the question as to the prospects for success of the initiative in the light of more money being put into the economy by the government. Another initiative which may be instructive for us is the bulk purchase by the National Flour Mills of staple products in non-traditional international markets and selling those items at cheaper prices locally. This was abandoned after NFM racked up huge losses.

Rating and comparison
Despite the challenges the country received a good review by the International Monetary Fund which last year described its economic performance as “remarkable in a regional context and in comparison to other energy producing economies.” More recently, the country’s credit rating has been raised making it more attractive to investors who seem unmindful of the crime situation that plagues T&T.

I have consciously avoided any comparisons or contrasts between Guyana and Trinidad where there are both similarities and differences, but for me some do stand out. The first is the willingness of the government in Trinidad to engage in the economy while in Guyana we are prepared to leave it to the private sector that has but one motive only. The second is the take of revenue that comes from natural resources.

In Trinidad it is 40% while in Guyana, as a result of a range of tax incentives our share is negligible, if not negative in economic terms. We tax the salaried and the poor in the form of income tax and VAT at punitive rates, while those are considerably less in Trinidad. The Audit Office in Trinidad has already published its report on the 2007 Accounts of the Government while in Guyana the 2006 has only just been released with warts galore.

Like Guyana, the government in Trinidad is not hesitant to use the economy for political causes and we share places of dishonour with Trinidad on the Transparency International scale of corruption. We are 126 while Trinidad is 72. Trinidad and Guyana both believe in big governments and political favours are not unknown. We also share similarities of demographics and the penchant of our nationals to migrate. Do I need to go on?

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Coping with the EPA

Introduction
Over the strident objections of President Jagdeo the Caribbean countries and the Dominican Republic will sign the Cariforum-EC Economic Partnership Agreement (EPA) some time within the next few weeks. The record will show that Guyana stood alone in its last minute efforts to have the region pause “to scrutinise further the trade services aspects of the deal.” After an unusually strong exchange involving the leaders of Barbados, Jamaica and Guyana, Guyana is in the most isolated state it has ever been for close to forty years. During that period and not least because of the grand vision of Forbes Burnham and the efforts and impact of Sir Shridath Ramphal and a long line of talented foreign ministers, Guyana was among the leaders of not only CARICOM but the Non-Aligned Movement, the commemoration statue of which is proudly displayed at Company Path Gardens in downtown Georgetown. We were respected by the much more powerful ACP group of countries with a generation of outstanding personalities like Mrs Gandhi, Manley and Kaunda, offering hope to the hundreds of millions of their people. And let us not forget at this sombre hour that the very seeds of the Lomé Convention were sown on the lawns of the Prime Minister’s Residence in Guyana in 1972.

The first Lomé Convention (Lomé I) came into force in April 1976 and provided a hard-won framework of cooperation between the then European Community (EC) and developing countries of Africa, the Caribbean and the Pacific regions, in particular former British, Dutch, Belgian and French colonies.

Lomé had two main aspects. It provided for most ACP agricultural and mineral exports to enter the EC free of duty. Preferential access based on a quota system was agreed for products, such as sugar and beef, in competition with EC agriculture. Secondly, the EC committed ECU 3 billion for aid and investment in the ACP countries.

The fiction of free trade
It was not a perfect agreement – General Gowon of Nigeria had earlier told the Heads of the Commonwealth that “it is a fiction to speak of a free trade area between developed and developing countries,”  but for a quarter of a century Lomé remained the cornerstone of trade and aid between Europe and the developing world. It was, however, affected by major developments in the configuration of states and their economies in the European Community  necessitating changes in the economic relationships between the countries of the Europe and those of the ACP.

Another major shift in the world paradigm was the dramatic enlargement of the World Trade Organsation (WTO) which was the club from which all, rich and poor, market based and state-driven, North and South, would consider exclusion akin to being an international pariah. In theory, the WTO is strongly committed to creating a level free-trade playing field, promoting trade without discrimination and fair competition among the countries of the world through rules to prevent unfair behaviour like dumping. If there was a sign of things to come, however, the WTO provided that sign with several major violations by the rich countries in areas where they mattered most to the poor and undeveloped countries. In agriculture, textiles and clothing protectionism, subsidies and unfair practices persisted in the developed countries while the poorer countries were compelled to open their economies in a liberalisation frenzy and remove subsidies on their products.

In 2000, Lomé was finally replaced by a new trade and aid agreement known as the Cotonou Agreement, transforming the previous convention into a system of trade and cooperation pacts with individual nations. The signs were already surfacing that ACP solidarity was being weakened and with the IMF’s influence and dominance, one by one under-developed countries were picked off and brought into the fold of the capitalist world against which they had railed for decades. Even those countries that had shaped their foreign policy along socialist lines soon spent their time and measured their success by how much development assistance they received and the amount of debt write-off they obtained.

Long gestation
How did we in the region and Guyana fare? No question that we should have been better prepared to avoid the embarrassing contretemps earlier this week in Barbados over the EPA. As long ago as 1997, even before Cotonou, CARICOM had set up its Caribbean Regional Negotiating Machinery (RNM) to handle the post-Lomé trade negotiations not only with Europe but with other countries as well. The RNM was initially headed by Sir Shridath who had presciently noted that “we have to be prepared in our minds for a world in which our markets will be open increasingly to competition and not only at the level of goods but also of investment and services.” I am not sure whether President Jagdeo, then Finance Minister was listening, but it is more than passing strange that these are some of the very issues (as well as government procurement) that are now being objected to by him as President and as a leader of CARICOM.

Arguing that it is unlikely that we would be afraid of banks and insurance companies entering our small markets, one  cynic suggested that President Jagdeo’s main objection to any EPA with a services component was in relation to government procurement which as we have seen over the past several weeks is treated as a closed shop by his government. Would an EU pharmaceutical company with a right to bid to supply drugs to the government have sat back as idly and watched the government break the law to help its friends? I doubt it. At the very least therefore President Jagdeo needs to tell the nation exactly what his concerns are, not in politically charged language but in a way the people and the private sector and civil society in particular can understand. He needs to tell us whether the support we receive from the EU as a body and the United Kingdom will come to an end and what might now be the opportunities in the EPA for our own services sector.

The lone national voice
The EPA has been on the table for several years and although President Jagdeo now claims that he has always been opposed to the deal which he will now have to sign “involuntarily” as he puts it, there is nothing in the communiqué coming out of the December 2007 meeting of CARICOM heads at which the decision to sign was made, indicating that he was opposed to signing. His major public rumbling on the EPA was voiced in an exchange with Carl Greenidge of Guyana and the RNM at the GBTI Business Forum 2008 (see Business Page of June 8, 2008, ‘President, scraps and concessions’) but any further discussion had to wait until the Carifesta party was over.

Professor Clive Thomas had for months in his Sunday Stabroek column laid out a compelling case against several features of the EPA but no one in the government took any notice and it was left to a few letter writers to join whatever little debate there has been on this issue which we are now told would affect our country’s very future. A scheduled two days “consultation” that comprised mainly speeches but little information and lasting less than one day was attended by representatives from the private sector and civil society, who clearly knew little or nothing about the EPA on which they were being consulted. The seriousness of the consultation was surely compromised by the PSC which the day before had met with the President and announced their support for his stand. It was no surprise, therefore, that  they along with civil society felt comfortable enough to give Jagdeo the mandate to tell the regional heads that Guyana would only be prepared to sign a “goods only EPA.” The problem for the President was that his mandate was too narrowly defined and it was success or failure – no win-win.

But more ludicrously he could not sign a goods-only agreement simply because none was on the table and the President must have known that.

Neglect
The years of neglect by the government of the reports coming out of the RNM whose head had ministerial rather than ambassadorial rank, the government’s abandonment of diplomacy as a main tool of regional and international negotiations and its failure to have meaningful consultations both at home and abroad now leave us in perhaps the weakest state we have been in since independence.

Machismo may make good domestic politics but our stance would have caused us some loss of face and respect among colleagues and donors. Whatever may be our views and prejudices, the EU representative did not deserve the discourtesies he received at the consultation, not only because he is a guest of our country but also because the EU is still a big donor to Guyana as successive Budget speeches would testify.

Instead of boasting about standing tall we need to take a serious look – if that is not being too optimistic − at whether our policies and actions are developmental in nature. While abusing the EU our country and economy continue to depend on rice, rum and sugar sales to that region. Our forestry and bauxite resources are exploited by foreigners in uneven investment arrangements and little returns to the country, not even with development assistance from the source countries. We have abandoned the National Development Strategy that embraced increased trade with our South American neighbours and have downgraded our diplomatic efforts to boost trade. Only this week the President announced that he is replacing one of the country’s last career diplomats with another pastured minister of the government in what could and should be our largest trading partner, Brazil. The President pleaded with his regional counterparts to wait until a meeting of the ACP Group of States in Ghana before making a final decision, but undermines the seriousness of that plea by his decision to send a junior minister to that meeting because he has a speaking engagement in China.

Let the consultations begin
If the EPA will be as disastrous for Guyana as President Jagdeo asserts with such passion and certainty, then he needs to tell the nation what steps we can and should take to counter those eventualities. Clearly our relations with CARICOM need to be reviewed and rebuilt and if, as both Jagdeo and Ramphal fear, the CSME is in further jeopardy (there is sufficient and justified uncertainty about the commitment of many of its members), then as a regional country we have to contribute to reducing that danger even as we seek to widen our trade relations with non-EU countries.

A useful framework for ascertaining the views of Guyanese and incorporating such measures would be a new Development Strategy based on the earlier version that is accumulating dust on the shelves. Let the (real) consultations begin.