Introduction
Not a day goes by without something being written about the miracle of China and India and the inevitability of these great countries graduating to superpower status. Their praises are sung in hyperbolic rhythms by a body of writers who have created a whole new cottage industry dedicated to them. The only question in the minds of many of these writers is not whether but how soon the two Asian giants – or as they are sometimes called the dragon and the elephant – will return to the glory days of four centuries ago when they were the dominant forces in world trade. One estimate is that by mid-century, India and China’s share of global output is expected to grow from 6% now to around 45%, spurred both by exports and burgeoning domestic purchasing power as more and more of their more than 2 billion people copy and can afford to live western lifestyles. All the measures suggest that China and India will overtake Germany and Japan and dwarf every other economy except America.
China is spending like a runaway train with expenditure on transportation infrastructure in the five years from 2001 to 2005 exceeding all the expenditure in the preceding fifty years. Spurred by the need to impress the world at the Summer Olympics later this year, it has built its new airport terminal which is 17% larger than Heathrow, faster than it would take London to complete an enquiry to consider whether it would add another terminal. Nothing seems impossible anymore so that when China announces that it will complete an expressway from Beijing to Taiwan’s capital Taipei by 2030, no one considers the challenges of crossing the 150 km Taipei Straits. What China does in one year, other countries seem unable to achieve in as many as ten.
More statues of Jesus
Some questions have however been creeping into the writings suggesting that the world needs to consider more than the marvel of these two giants which, even before their resurgence, had given the world so much. Among China’s many gifts going back more than one millennium are the clock, technology in hydraulics, shipbuilding, weaving and spinning machines, paper and ink, and more leisurely comforts like the toothbrush and playing card. Then like now India’s gifts were in know-how including mathematics from the decimal point to the Pi (the numerical ratio of the circumference to the diameter). Complacency overtook them both as power and politics placed a brake on their development.
Once again, in the blink of an eye, both countries have become so big that economies around the world – from its neighbours in Asia, Europe and North America – are now dependent on them for a full range of goods and services. In their separate ways, China’s workforce and work ethic and India’s information technology and back-office services have brought down prices for the family, the office and the factory. It is ironic that more statues of Jesus are made in atheistic China than are made in the entire Christian world! There are few products in the world that do not include some component or know-how from these giants and it would not be surprising if the harshest critics of out-sourcing among television commentators were wearing shoes or garments made from China. Indeed even those thousands in San Francisco protesting China’s Tibet policy during the passage of the Olympics Torch in their city last week might have been similarly attired. There simply is no getting away from the growing dominance of China and India.
Economic and military power
Yet, nothing should be taken for granted and admiration can easily turn to hatred if these countries behave like superpowers usually do, flexing their muscles and showing no regard for domestic and international concerns. China, for example, is accused by its critics as being willing to work with the most extreme regimes, as in Darfur, if only to source raw materials for its huge factories. Its size and economic power are fast translating into military ambitions and it has its sights set firmly on Taiwan which is now treated as a pariah by so many of its former friends, afraid to offend China. China’s patience is legendary but will it lose it and “reclaim” Taiwan and will the world stand idly by?
As world demand for Chinese goods and Indian technology increases, it brings with it increasingly affluent domestic populations aspiring to higher standards of comfort, if not luxury. To meet those growing demands, China and India are displaying an increased appetite for natural resources, contributing to the driving up of prices of commodities including food around the world. But as their factories produce the goods to meet both international and domestic demand, they add to the pollution problem of their people and the rest of the world. It is troubling that neither country, along with the USA and Australia seems willing to enter into binding commitments on pollution controls. They will need to learn a lesson from America when it comes to the use of economic and military might.
The mighty challenges
With the Communist Party still calling the shots in China and national and provincial politicians wielding considerable influence in India, corruption remains high in both nations. China is still to safeguard the intellectual property of manufacturers, the music industry and the arts. The state of the laws generally has not kept pace with development and cases of broken contracts and theft of intellectual-property are often not worth pursuing. India has a Western-style legal system that produces decisions that rank with the best the House of Lords can offer. But as they say, one cow does not make a herd and the country’s court system generally moves at a snail’s pace.
India’s growth can also suffer at the fiscal level. Budget deficits are high and with the considerable infrastructure deficit and the army of poor and hungry Indians wanting a piece of the Puri, it will require sustained growth to generate the taxes to meet the necessary demands on the federal and state budgets. Disease thrives on poverty and even as India promotes health tourism, the potential for a pandemic is ever present as AIDS and TB threaten hundreds of millions.
India has been relatively fortunate that it has been able to graduate from a low growth rate despite failing infrastructure, a bureaucracy controlled by a 10-million babu raj exercising impenetrable red tape, and an inhuman caste system that seems as unmovable as Mount Everest. The politicians in India are finding it difficult to erase the Gandhi/Nehru philosophy of self-reliance and restrictions on bank lending and foreign investment which impose limits to growth and development.
Unemployment
Despite all the economic achievements of China and India, each year tens of millions of youth join the job queue, some in front and others behind the estimated 200 million yet to reap the benefits of the Asian Miracle. The heavy hand of China was inadequate to prevent more than 57,000 labour strikes while social rights activists in India lament the failure of economic achievements or social programmes to reach the poor. In a federal democracy that could be a recipe for political instability which can derail any economic train.
China’s critics complain about the country’s labour practices which permit low wages paid to workers forced to perform under dehumanizing conditions, about large state subsidies, violations of WTO Rules including dumping at below market prices and an undervalued currency, the Chinese yuan. As the benefits of industrialisation stretch into the countryside and bring urban/rural wages in a more tolerable relationship, farms are being destroyed and farmers deprived of their lands creating serious tensions between the party and the people.
For all its greatness and growth, China is considered hugely wasteful. Even as the world marvels at its 9.5% growth rate in 2004, it should not ignore the fact that $850 billion – half of GDP – was mainly plowed into already-glutted sectors like crude steel, vehicles, and office buildings. Its factories burn fuel five times less efficiently than in the West, and more than 20% of bank loans are bad.
China is also confronting its biggest problem and one that can cause it to lose its competitive edge, its one-child policy introduced as a population control measure. By 2015, its working-age population will begin to decline and in 20 years, an estimated 300 million Chinese will be over sixty years old with no guarantee of any state assistance. With a growing middle class and persons less reliant on the State, can China continue its communist ways and treat any future Tiananmen Square-type uprising with the same heavy hand that it used in 1989 and will the world remain spineless as it tramples the rights of the Tibetans as it is doing now?
Conclusion
For all the dazzling performance of China and India, their continued success will take more than cheerleaders. They currently only account for 6% of global gross domestic product, half that of Japan, and while the signs are good, their success is not guaranteed. The expectations of the hundreds of millions of their people will only be satisfied if the economies of these countries continue to grow at rates that guarantee jobs for the tens of millions entering the workforce annually. That is a huge responsibility and for a world that depends on the goods and services from those countries, any setback in the two countries would have a huge and possibly disastrous effect.