Introduction
Before going into a couple of matters arising out of the 2011 Budget let us clear up a few points. In prefatory remarks during his budget speech, the Minister of Finance said “today, the Guyanese economy is larger than ever before with gross domestic product (GDP) now measured at $453 billion, and more resilient than ever before…” He did not say that this number increased dramatically last year by the simple exercise of rebasing the national accounts. As Ram & McRae pointed out in their response to the 2010 Budget, the re-basing caused an immediate increase in the GDP by 63%. Magically, that also made each of us much better off, in national economic terms, than we were before the rebasing.
What the Minister avoided as well was any reference to, or mention of, the extent to which the economy is driven by the underground, illegal and criminal economies. It is correct to say that the proceeds of these activities are not reported to the tax authorities and therefore escape taxation. But it is not correct to say that they do not form part of the GDP figure. The reason why they do get counted is because of the two ways used to measure GDP – by the income method under which such transactions are by definition excluded, and under the expenditure method under which it is captured.
Here is a simple example: drug man A ‘earns’ say one million US dollars during the year as his commission for moving the goods from Colombia to the US via Guyana. Clearly he will not report this to the tax authorities and is careful how and how much he washes through the cambio and street foreign exchange markets. But when he uses that money to set up a business, buy a vehicle or establish a housing scheme, the transaction enters into the GDP figures. So it does contribute to the ‘growth’ in the economy and to its ‘resilience.’
International reserves
Dr Singh also drew attention to the country’s external reserves but failed to mention the part played by Petro-Caribe and IMF funds in this equation. Nor was he prepared to relate the reserves to the country’s import bill which is spiralling almost out of control. As the few live off the fat of the poor, the country is now spending increasing amounts on luxury goods which cause our import bill to climb. In 2010, merchandise imports are projected to grow by 20% to US$1,477 million with the result that for 2011, the overall balance of payments (the account that measures international trade) is projected at a surplus of US$24.4M compared with US$90.1M in 2010 and US$234 million in 2009.
That places the country’s international reserves and its exchange rate at risk which, but for remittances, would have been significant if not disastrous. A sound tax system would see that the economy does not bear a disproportionate share of this burden. As we saw in Suriname a couple of days ago, the government seeks to address these goods by what are called “sin taxes.” Our sin tax for a very different reason is the VAT.
Over-exuberance
While the Finance Minister engaged in spinning the numbers, Mr Manzoor Nadir, a sometimes over-enthusiastic TUF member of the government takes it further by actually making false claims about the country’s economic performance. During this past week in a very cordial telephone conversation with him, I had to remind him of his wrong claim last year that four successive years of growth is a joint record in Guyana. I noted that he is now magnifying the myth on his current television rounds by extrapolating from his 2010 mis-claim that with Dr Singh’s reported 2010 growth, the five years continuous growth “represents the longest period of sustained growth in Guyana.” That is not correct and it was unfortunate that none of his fellow panelists or interviewers seemed to have been better informed or willing to correct him. As I pointed out to Mr Nadir, the period 1991-1997 saw seven years of significant growth that started to fall once Mr Jagdeo had taken over from Asgar Ally as Finance Minister in the mid-nineties.
Tax rates and allowances
The reduction in the tax rates for the corporate sector – with the discriminatory exception of the two telephone companies – has brought the Private Sector Commission alive, giving them something to crow about. The Georgetown Chamber of Commerce, a leading member of the PSC, was more measured in its response – it saw the increase in the threshold and the reduction in the tax rate as a good start. Neither of them bothered to reflect that the increase in the threshold does not restore the allowance to the value it had three years ago. In other words, adjusted for inflation, the $40,000 announced for 2011 is less that the $35,000 it replaced.
To have meant something the threshold should be the $50,000 called for by the unions. However, because this group pays such a significant portion of the taxes on income collected by the state, the government can be neither bold nor honest in addressing the level of the threshold. A proper tax threshold should be an indexed number that allows automatic increase in line with inflation. Under the un-indexed system, the individual is forced to bear the cost of inflation. It is for the same reason that the government will not reduce the rate of VAT – it is a cash cow and brings in huge revenues so that a couple of percentage points reduction would mean a lot.
The private sector has bought into a strategy that compresses the threshold for several years, releasing it only in an election year. It has too, bought into the myth of the relevance of the corporate tax rate. For the waged employee the personal income tax rate is meaningful since barring a small travel allowance here and a meal allowance there, after the personal allowance, his entire income is taxed.
What do tax rates mean?
With very few exceptions, for the self-employed and the corporate sector, tax rates mean little. They decide how much tax they are prepared to pay and have their friendly accountant – and here I include some professionally qualified accountants – do the rest. It embarrasses me that a profession to which I belong engages in this or any level of tax evasion. What is worse is that all of this is known to the authorities who seem unwilling to do anything about it.
Next week I hope to have comprehensive data establishing that for the self-employed and for segments of the corporate sector, tax rates matter little. Many of them live off the taxes paid by employed persons and the consumers. The estimates for 2011 show projected income from income tax under the PAYE as $16 billion and VAT and Excise Taxes of $50 billion, together accounting for roughly two-thirds of the total taxes to be collected by the GRA this year.
And this is one of the reasons why I do not think this government wants to undertake any tax reform. For them the threshold and the tax rate offer an easy, low cost option. It also throws the private sector off their call for tax reform that looks at all issues of taxation, including sectoral and geographical contribution. The private sector has failed to ask even the most basic question and the reasons for the delayed tabling of the annual report of the GRA by the Minister of Finance. None of them seems impressed that the basic rate of personal tax is now higher than the corporate tax rate, a situation unprecedented in this country. And this has happened while dividend income is tax free, as are capital gains on shares in public companies.
The expenditure side of the budget
The private sector too does not appear concerned about the expenditure side of the budget. Expenditure keeps defying the laws of gravity, increasing over the period 2006 to 2011 (projected) by 60%. Over the same period the capital budget is projected to increase by 48%, from $42 billion (2006) to $62 billion. Employment costs over the period will have risen from $14 billion to $22 billion or 57% but not for the traditional public servant whose income has increased by the PPP/C’s standard 5% annually. It has come from that creation called ‘contract employees’ the number of which keeps increasing annually.
In 2010, wages and salaries for contract employees increased by a whopping 40% while the total wage bill increased by 0.24%! Not only are funds being diverted though NICIL but employees are also being diverted, this time via the Office of the President, the Ministry of Health, etc. Worse, my information is that some of these ‘contractors’ are treated as self-employed and are responsible for paying their own taxes. In other words, the government encourages the tax evasion.
The overall deficit of the government finances is projected to increase from $20.6B to $34.0B. And that is after $14 billion of Norwegian money. If that does not come in, any government that comes in after the 2011 elections will have a real job on their hands.
If only the private sector could be convinced that these matters are as important as the tax rate, we would in fact have a good debate going.